Sunday, April 6, 2008
NATION- BUILDING AT THE CROSSROADS
The post below details a couple of raw ideas laid by Dr. Abdalbasit Saeed. the ideas try to explore the urgent challenges/crisis in the sudan in the bigger global picture. Comments will be highly appreciated!Tallal
NATION-BUILDING AT THE CROSSROADS: The CPA Implementation as a Critical Phase in the History of Sudan
Dr. Abdalbasit Saeed, Khartoum-Sudan (yazeituny@hotmail.com)
Introduction:
The truths, reflections, analysis or misjudgements and predespositions in this rejoinder are the sole responsibility of the author. They do not, however, question the validity or justification of the initial ‘Civilizational Mission’ sloganed by the Regime of the National Islamic Front (NIF) at its point of inception in June 1989. The discussion is rather concerned with the determinant moments that generated the 1989/1990 ‘New World Order’ which the NIF regime failed to comprehend at just the same historic moment, and which culminated in its own undoing 15 years later, including ten years of cumbersome negotiations on the basis of the Declaration of Principles (DOP) put forward by the Inter-Govermental Authority on Development (IGAD) in 1993/94 and adopted by the Government of the Sudan (GOS) in 1997. After five years of slack foot-dragging on both sides, more serious negotiations picked-up in 2002 between the GOS and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM). The final output was the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that became effective 9-January 2005.
Across the past few years (2000-2007) the Sudan stood as top-rated among countries of the world, and the African region, for the greatest number of Security Council Resolutions defining a member State of the UN family as a threat to international peace and security. The Sudan is the first country, since the beginning of the 21st. Century, to receive indictment, by the UN Security Council Resolutions, under Chapter Seven of the UN Charter. Sudan is the UN member state who had to sign the largest number of agreements aimed at the protection of civilians as well as ending internal violent conflict, with its own citizens, during the first ten years of the 21st. Century. Sudan is among the few countries charged with highest rates of corruption. The main question is: why? May be because the Sudan is, also, the country who witnessed the longest war in Africa of the 20th. Century. It is the only country, in the first decade of the 21st. Century, whose top political leadership, ministers, military brass, and executives have been listed (February 2007) for possible persecution by the International Criminal Court (ICC). In spite of all such derregatory connotations of genocidal activity in Darfur, pariah state and/ or failed state, still the country seems to be holding together and is expected to enter into a real test of legitimate governance (in 2009) to elect the President, First Vice President, national legislature (500 MPs), 25 state governors, 25 state legislatures (1000 representatives) and locality governments (undetermined number of delegates) from village clusters and administrative units.
Ancient Country
The Sudan is an ancient country. Its lands are rich and fertile enough to provide a solid foundation for prosperity. Its people are proud and industrious enough to seize the opportunities that may be presented. There is sufficient reason to believe that the peoples of the Sudan will not be found wanting, in stamina, in determination, or in natural endowments, if political will for social action is there. It is suprising that, in spite a claimed history of three thousand years, the country still abides in the perpetual threats and risks of floods every time the River Nile chooses to seriously overflow its banks. May be because the country never adopted a clear human settlement development strategy to rid its people of such risks that are easily foreseen by a by-stander.
The Sudan today is striving to make peace and make positive change. May be because the country has wasted much valued time in making war rather than in making peace. Of late, however, and in all regions of the country, peoples’ efforts towards peace-building and positive change seem to be ‘beginning’ to bear fruit. May be besause they realized the high cost of making war as a vehicle for sustaining the fragile national unity they have been trying to build, since the attainment of political independence in 1956. Common wisdom tells that, in spite of the carnage and tragedy that afflicted the Sudan in many important ways, one must not forget the bright spots or overlook the achievements along the path to peace, development and shaky national unity. The time is long past when anyone could claim ignorance about what has been happening in the Sudan. Politicians and rulers do know what needs to be done in order to achieve progress. It is very sad that they are not delivering anything. The time is also past when the responsibilities for producing positive change could be shifted on to others' shoulders. Current responsibilities are great tasks that the people of Sudan must all face. The people of Sudan, must stand ready to play their historic part, in this historic moment, at the Crossroads. So must all the political parties. What is needed is political will. Rhetoric can truly be transformed into reality by political will. Without political will, not even the noblest sentiments will have a chance of success.
Three areas deserve particular attention:
First, the Sudan must demonstrate the will to rely upon political rather than military responses and solutions to problems. Democratic channels for pursuing legitimate interests and expressing dissent must be protected, and political opposition must be respected and accommodated in constitutional-legal forms.
Second, the Sudan must summon the will to take good governance seriously, ensuring respect for human rights and the rule of law, strengthening democratization, and promoting transparency and capability in public administration. Unless good governance is prized, the Sudan will not break free of the threat and the reality of conflict that are so evident today.
Third, the Sudan must enact and adhere to the many and various reforms that are needed to promote economic growth with equity and socio-economic development and social equality. Long-term success can be achieved only if the regional governments of the united Sudan have the express political will to enact sound economic policies, and to persevere in their implementation until a solid economic foundation has been established.
The Turn of the 20th. Century: A Critical Phase in the History of Sudan
The world is passing through a very critical phase in human history. In the name of globalization the capitalist–imperialist world system have brought down most murderous attacks, vicious persecution, and ruthless exploitation on the working masses. This is the “new world order” that the imperialists, led by USA, want to impose: “fighting terrorism” and championing “democracy” are the new ploys ‘as political ideology’ in the hands of the imperialists to launch barbaric military aggression on countries, to forcibly occupy them and to engineer regime change. Economic and fiscal instruments of this world regime have led to steep decline in real wages and pauperization of the peasantry, particularly in ‘third world countries’. The ferocity of this system-wide attack can be gauged by the ever deteriorating living conditions of urban workers where retrenchment and lay-offs are increasing by leaps and bounds, as well as by the increasing poverty of rural peasants and pastoralists.
In the post-Second-World-War period the newly independent bourgeois nationalist regimes, in order to hold onto their political independence and to protect their economy from western imperialist penetration, leaned on the Soviet Union and got the necessary support. These countries, without joining either the imperialist or the socialist camp, built up the platform of non-aligned movement, which was aimed at reaping benefits from both the camps through bargaining in order to consolidate their native capitalism. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the socialist camp these countries became vulnerable to penetration by the transnational corporations. India, long considered an ally of the poor developing countries in their fight against imperialist penetration, joined the western imperialist camp to fulfil its own imperialist ambition. The resistance of the third world countries got severely weakened.
To understand the alignment of forces of change and/or of reaction and to correctly chart out our course in this critical juncture, and to comprehend why we should toil ‘to make national unity attractive’, let us go back into history, a little bit. The aim is to describe the workings of the crisis in imperialist economy – excess capital and shrinking of market. It is to show, as well, that the number of competitors in the world trade system is getting more while the market is being progressively squeezed. It is at this critical juncture that the Sudan, without much of strategic thinking, attempts to enter the WTO and at the same time trys to abandon the US$ system: What a contradition?
1 The Second World War ended with the victory of the social forces of change, at the time, over the fascist powers. The post-war period was marked by a surge of popular struggles for emancipation. The Soviet Union, under Stalin, emerged as a leading light in the world struggle for emancipation. Socialism was freed from the bounds of one country and was transformed to a world system, as an alternative to the capitalist system. Socialist states were established in the countries of Eastern Europe, in China, Korea, Vietnam, Cuba. In the nonsocialist countries, victorious liberation movements and anti-imperialist struggles liberated the African and Latin American colonies, one after another.
2 The imperialist powers, being politically concerned that capitalism was weakened, about losing a large part of the world market, and that intense market crisis gripped the capitalist world market. Also, in the post-Stalin period, revisionism established a firm grip on the leadership of the Soviet Communist Party, and the downward slide began, ultimately leading to the dismantling of socialism in the 1990s and establishment of capitalism in Soviet Russia.
3 China also, after the demise of Comrade Mao Ze-Dong, turned back from the socialist path and ultimately capitalism was restored there. The restorationist movement of the capitalist bourgeoize in Russia and China, was accompanied by the disappearance of the socialist working-class institutions of state control. The event gave a new lease of life to imperialism by expanding their domain of world market exploitation.
4 The neo-imperialists gleefully proclaimed that:
4.1 The disappearance of Soviet Russia, as the ‘evil empire’, means that the main danger for war and threat to world peace has disappeared from the scene.
4.2 They claimed that the world has become unipolar; and that the world market is now integrated into a single entity, in which all the countries will have opportunities for growth and prosperity.
4.3 They aggressively paraded slogans of privatization, globalization and liberalization. It was toutered that these economic policy measures supported by the twin bretton woods institutions (IBRD and IMF) would open the doors to unfettered progress of the whole of humanity.
5 However, as these golden dreams were being peddled to a confused populace, crisis in the capitalist-imperialist economy further intensified. This is, presumably, a result of the inherent contradiction in the capitalist system.
6 The analysis is as follows: for the propensity of the rate of profit to fall, spectacular technological advances were not only time-savors which increased the productive capacity many times over, but were giving reason for the purchasing power of the people to be continuously squeezed by capitalst firms having contradictory 'anarchic' production and pricing policies and practices. Competition between the imperialist powers for shares in the shrinking world market has become more and more fierce.
6.1 At first (1950-1970s) the USA was the unquestioned leader in the imperialist camp because of its economic and military strength. The economic domination of USA is now (2000 +) being challenged. The European Union (EU) and Japan have emerged as contenders. Capitalist Russia, after getting over the initial chaos following the overthrow of the socialist system, is trying to expand its sphere of economic and political influence.
6.2 To counter this the USA, by extending the NATO eastwards, is trying to militarily encircle Russia, just like ‘the containment strategy’ of 1950s and 1960s.
6.3 China, after being converted to a capitalist state through counter-revolution, is also flexing its muscle to emerge as a global economic force and to assert its dominance in South Asia. To counter the Chinese domination USA is trying to form a bloc with India and other countries like Australia, Japan, Israel.
6.4 Thus, one could see that the number of competitors is getting more while the market is being progressively squeezed. This is the crisis in imperialist economy – excess capital and shrinking of market.
7 Globalization is a desperate attempt of capitalist-imperialism to come out of the crisis in the capitalist economic system. GATT and WTO came into being as crisis management measures to somehow patch up a regulated trade system and division of market according to strength of capital. However, gobalization has completely failed to meet the crisis that is rocking the capitalist world. Industrial growth in all the capitalist countries, including the advanced countries, has slowed down; there is severe recession, widespread unemployment, rise of poverty, and slashing of social welfare measures. With each passing day it is becoming increasingly clear that the real objective of globalization, privatization and liberalization is to squeeze the last drop of blood from the impoverished workers and to establish the all-round domination of the western imperialist powers over the underdeveloped world.
8 WTO is a tool in the hands of USA and other big imperialist powers to pressurize the weaker nations to open up their markets for unrestricted loot and plunder and to allow the imperialists to have free access to their resources. In the name of ‘reforms’, they are forcing the weaker countries to remove subsidies and lift all barriers against penetration of foreign goods and capital, but at the same time they themselves are preserving subsidies and resisting external penetration into their own market. The economy of the poor countries depends a lot on agriculture, but their agricultural products cannot compete with the heavily subsidized products from the advanced countries.
9 Further, imperialism is exerting its control over the agriculture of these countries by making them dependent on imported seeds, genetically engineered products and fertilizers. Privatization-globalization-liberalization is used as instruments of the imperialist strategy. Opening up of the market, privatization and structural reforms dictated by the World Bank and IMF are impoverishing the people and are leading to a stark polarization between the rich and the poor. Not only is the difference between the rich and the poor increasing within each country, but the gap between rich and poor nations is also widening. But as the exploitation is getting more, so also is the people’s resentment towards globalization increasing not only in the poorer countries, but also in the advanced capitalist countries. Within USA itself people’s opposition to globalization is growing. American capital instead of being invested in local industry is exported abroad to manufacture goods using the cheap labour power and resources of those countries. This is leading to closing down of US-based-local-industry, resulting in widespread retrenchment and unemployment.
10 Lenin pointed out more than one hundred years ago that it is the crisis in capitalism that poses the greatest danger to world peace and is the basic cause that leads to wars. In today’s globalized world all the capitalist-imperialist countries are engaged in trade wars, with each one trying to obstruct penetration by the others into its own market, while demanding unrestricted right to enter into others’ markets. Bitter disputes are coming out into the open between the three major imperialist groupings, USA, European Union and Japan, each trying to expand their shares in the global market and thereby multiplying their political influence. China is sneeking-in from a small 'window' left ajar to vent hot air. On the other hand the fissure between the developed countries and the resurgent capitalist countries are becoming wider. The latter are trying to group together to oppose the agenda of the G8 countries. In this scenario of deep division and bitter fight between them, all the imperialist countries have the compulsion to constantly strive to enlarge their own reserve markets.
11 Another point to take note of is that in the recessive capitalist world market today the military establishments, because of their status-quo functions in support of the ruling class, are the richest and chief consumers all over the world. For artificial stimulation of the sagging economy, the capitalist states of both the imperialist and developing countries are taking recourse to militarization of the economy and society. Thus, buying and selling of arms, including their clandistine proliferation into the hands of civilians, have become a major international trade. Hence, for release of stockpiles of arms, engineering local and partial wars, fomenting army-based coups, propping up military dictatorships, have become a compulsive necessity of imperialism as well as of the reactionary elite of the third world. Side by side, the sharpening contradiction among the imperialist powers is making arms-flows a real danger and high-risk. It brings them very close to military confrontation over missles in East Europe, the new ‘bay-of-pigs’. Increasing militarization of economies of the imperialist powers is accentuating this contradiction and is leading to outbreaks of war.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
About " Lost Boys of Sudan "
To know more about that visit these websites :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_boys_of_sudan
http://www.valentinoachakdeng.org/
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Farewell Letter of Marquez
Gabriel Garcia Marquez has retired from public life due to worsening lymphatic cancer. Recently, he sent this farewell letter.
If for a moment God were to forget that I am a rag doll and granted me a piece of life, I probably wouldn't say everything that I think; rather, I would think about everything that I say.
I would value things, not for their worth but for what they mean. I would sleep less, dream more, understanding that for each minute we close our eyes, we lose sixty seconds of light.
I would walk when others hold back, I would wake when others sleep, I would listen when others talk.
And how I would enjoy a good chocolate ice cream!
If God were to give me a piece of life, I would dress simply, throw myself face first into the sun, baring not only my body but also my soul.
My God, if I had a heart, I would write my hate on ice, and wait for the sun to show. Over the stars I would paint with a Van Gogh dream a Benedetti poem, and a Serrat song would be the serenade I'd offer to the moon.
I would water roses with my tears, to feel the pain of their thorns and the red kiss of their petals... My God, if I had a piece of life... I wouldn't let a single day pass without telling the people I love that I love them.
I would convince each woman and each man that they are my favorites, and I would live in love with love.
I would show men how very wrong they are to think that they cease to be in love when they grow old, not knowing that they grow old when they cease to be in love!
To a child I shall give wings, but I shall let him learn to fly on his own. I would teach the old that death does not come with old age, but with forgetting.
So much have I learned from you, oh men ... I have learned that everyone wants to live at the top of the mountain, without knowing that real happiness is in how it is scaled.
I have learned that when a newborn child first squeezes his father's finger in his tiny fist, he has him trapped forever.
I have learned that a man has the right to look down on another only when he has to help the other get to his feet.
From you I have learned so many things, but in truth they won't be of much use, for when I keep them within this suitcase, unhappily shall I be dying.
Gabriel Garcia Marquez
December, 2000
Sunday, September 30, 2007
ABYEI AREA AT THE CROSSROADS: centrepiece of unity, eyeball of disunity?
INTRODUCTION
1. The ensuing discussion does not address the social-historical genesis and complications of Abyei Area Conflict. It rather looks into the implications of the Protocol on the Resolution of Abyei Conflict (PRAC) for the people of the area, the Misiriya and the Ngok-Dinka, towards the end of the Interim Period-and-after. Both the Misiriya and the Ngok-Dinka accept the PRAC. The Misiriya are categorically opposed to the ABC Report. The predicament is that Abyei Territory has, thus, become transformed into ‘a dysfunctional problem of the state formation’ much more than it is ‘a problem for the functioning of local communities’ who live there. What are the missed opportunities?
2. In the eyes of other stakeholders, particularly the Trioka Countries and the UN family who view both the PRAC and the ABC Report as binding documents to the NCP and SPLM, the major Partners to the CPA have wasted much valued time at a defunct renegotiating exercise on ‘peace’. They failed to do the obvious for more than two years, due to continued ‘hair-splitting’ in pursuit of ‘solutions’ the NCP and the SPLA think are pertinent. They are providing the evidence to external stakeholders that the burden of unity has become too heavy for them to carry together, short of continued third party assistance. Thus ‘the ailing boat’ could swing either way, depending on how strong and united are the social forces ‘winds’ of change: for or against the grand objective of “making unity attractive”?
3. The view, here, is that the situation in Abyei Area has gradually changed into a function of disarticulation of the State apparatus. The primary threat for peace, from the view point of the Ngok-Dinka, is the spread of small arms and the availability of ammunitions in the hands of the Misiriya and Dinka. Much worse, is that arms and ammunitions remained unchecked since the end of organized hostilities and that government authorities, in the absence of Abyei Administration foreseen in the CPA, have been unable to control them. For the Misiriya who are categorically opposed to ABC Report, the primary issue is that the outcome of adopting and implementing it would eventually threaten their livelihoods and survival through alienating them from dry-season water sources at the Ragaba-zarga. In the context of such perceived jeopardy, on the one hand and conjugal peace with the PRAC, on the other, the paper attempts to map out core issues and challenges and identify key stakeholders involved in Abyei Area, within the context of uncertain future for Southwestern Kordofan. While the principal stakeholders (NCP, SPLM and Oil Companies) do have their eyes on the lucrative oil resources, more than on the welfare of the people in SKS, WKZ and Abyei, they all must understand that the people of area, who are the real 'primary' stakeholders, could not be assumed for granted by any or all. Therefore, they must be treated as 'primary' stakeholders and must be duly streamlined in the implementation of the relevant protocols in order to ensure positive outcomes and impact.
4. A hasty jump to conclusions leads the author to make the following statements:
Firstly, the primary entry point, for arresting further deterioration and for addressing the contradictions, is to implement the CPA provisions without delay, while preparing local communities for positive responses. The Misiriya and Dinka are to be recognized as primary-stakeholders who may not be assumed for granted.
Secondly, and in order to overcome the challenges that make-up the uncertain future of Southwestern Kordofan: the backlog of the days of war has to be cleared, including through multi-facetted programs on recovery and reintegration covering socio-cultural, socio-economic, political, administrative and legal reforms that must be consultative and people-centered.
Thirdly, the principal Parties must be prepared to accommodate 'new' innovative ideas and viable political solutions. This is necessary for building mutual trust, in order to consolidate peace and "make national unity attractive". Otherwise, the road would be dotted with potentially unpleasant episodes that could make Southwestern Kordofan degenerate into violent conflict of immeasurable consequences.
Fourthly, the corollary is that NCP and SPLM, therefore, must be quick learners, in re-educating and re-training themselves into accepting 'new' innovative ideas and viable political solutions. This is simply because 'the negotiating-table context' where the CPA provisions were born had been vastly at variance with 'the practical implementation context'. The issue of Abyei Area poses itself as 'the litmus test' for the latter. For example, the CPA stipulates that areas where there are oil-related installations must remain demilitarized and overseen by the JIUs. Of course there are communities indigenous to such areas: what are their rights? Is it not high time for the NCP and SPLM, instead of recourse to the IGAD mediators, to seriously consider whether southwestern Kordofan, the cradle of strategic oil reserves, could be a better place for Misiriya and Dinka to live in harmony, if the area is redefined a demilitarized buffer zone. This could be contemplated within or without a revamping of the PRAC.
LISTENING TO MISIRIYA AND NGOK-DINKA: old wisdom in new bottles
5. The paramount chief of the Misiriya intimated to the author that:
Firstly, the Misiriya have never been “the root cause” of the problem. They found ‘themselves’ caught up between two armies fighting each other during the First North-South War. They had to defend themselves, especially when they realized that their neighbors did take the side of one of the antagonists. Self defense, being a legitimate option, they had to seek ‘protection’ from the other side. The eminent threat is still paramount, and will continue to be their biggest concern, so long as their livelihoods– the substance of being - is endangered by the ABC Report. Secondly, that they shared the land with the Dinka for more than three centuries and settled all disputes on the basis of custom and tradition. They are predestined to share it, now and in the future. In the past, the Misiriya had no boundaries vis-à-vis the Dinka, and would not accept boundaries now. Thirdly, the Misiriya know little about oil economics, but they are certain that oil-related issues are in the hearts and minds of both the antagonists. Fourthly, that the Misiriya are no longer certain as to whether the Dinka do want to live together with them, like in the good old days, and share all that their land has been giving them. They could share the land through peaceful co-existence based on the commonality of interests and on the basis of the age-old standing customary norms and traditions of their forefathers. Fifthly, the ABC Experts’ Report has not proven that the Misiriya were ‘ensalvers’. In the same vain, during the hostilities in the area the Misiriya were never ‘the belligerents’, they were acting in self-defense all along.
6. As to the views from the side of the Ngok-Dinka, the author sat for hours with all the Nine Dinka Chiefs. They also believed that they were victims to a siege imposed by the two opposing armies. They added that the same two armies are still staying around. However, the concerns of the Dinka Chiefs were not about the distant past, but rather that: Firstly, non-implementation of the PRAC – literally – equals “NO Peace for the people of Abyei”. They must be availed with the administration for Abyei foreseen in the CPA. Secondly, the people of Abyei Area want to see results of the ‘original text’ of the PRAC on the ground rather than the supplements that were inserted into it. Thirdly, sitting to discuss issues with the Misiriya only comes second to the implementation of the PRAC. In the event, the basis for sitting to deliberate on ‘points for the future’ must be made clear well in advance.
Land Marks in the Present Context of Southwestern Kordofan
7. Southwestern Kordofan, recognized in the CPA as ‘the former West Kordofan component’, with an area of 62.000 km2 including Abyei Area, has been merged with the ‘the former South Kordofan component’; i.e., the Nuba Mountains, in accordance with the SKS Protocol. It had autonomous development for eleven years as part of the defunct West Kordofan State. It is therefore, an object for administrative reintegration into SKS during the interim period. However, Southwestern Kordofan is being pulled in different directions: the SPLM-Nuba is pulling eastwards, for the fact that Lagawa Locality is designated as part of the Nuba Mountains, in order to grab a share of the lucrative oil revenues. The SPLM-South Sudan is pulling Southwestern Kordofan to the south and holding it captive to the PRAC, in order to win the contested oil-rich Abyei area. The NCP/Northern Sudan governing elite not only define Southwestern Kordofan as the strategic district in view of the rich oil and mineral resource base, but also for maintaining it as a buffer zone in the case of return to hostilities. Abyei Area is geographically aligned to the jigsaw movement (pull-and-push) for oil resources of the area. The population Southwestern Kordofan (500.000, including Abyei Area) is divided, in terms of political allegiance, among the sectarian Umma Party, the NCP and SPLM-Nuba Chapter such as in Lagawa County. All in all, the Misiriya are a longtime ally of the central government authority, irrespective of the form of the governing regime in Khartoum. The majority of the Misiriya are satisfied with merger into SKS. They insist on equitable treatment regarding their shares from oil revenue as per CPA. If this is not fulfilled, it could lead to complications. However, the chances for the Misiriya to make alliances with neighbors (Nuba and Daju to the East, or Ngok-Dinka to the South) towards any armed resistance are weak, because of mistrust on account of Misiriya past alliance with the central government.
8. Prolonged conflict, man-made crises that are socio-political and historically determined have devastated livelihoods systems and precipitated deep-seated ideological/ stereotypical, social and geographic dichotomies among peoples of Southern Kordofan State (SKS), leading to a fractured political landscape. An imminent scenario is that the virgin and resourceful area of southwestern Kordofan, with high development potential, with oil and minerals, vast land and forest, would attract massive population movements of investors and speculators in up-coming years. The current population density of only 5-6 persons/km2 would soon be overwhelmed by immigrants and labor migrants. The pastoralist Misiriya and Dinka would be left alone to roam about. They must learn to settle and transform their small villages and camps in to primary market settlements. Hence, large urban settlements would rise in advantageous areas. New forms of land tenure, in place of the fluid usufructuary practices of today, would be established ‘hot house’ in pursuit of capital gain through land rent and mercantilist appropriation of surplus product. ‘Get rich soon’ would be the slogan. It would be the central dynamic for incoming speculators and investors, including the capitalist state form.
9. The expected trend for the future would, of course, find justification in the national free market policy of liberalization and, particularly, privatization of land and property rights. As of 2005, when the CPA was signed, 450.000 fedan of arable land in the lower Wadi-Shelengo valley had been given-out by the government, since 1992, as leasehold property to large-scale mechanized farming ‘land-miners’. Abyei might follow soon. This trend is not expected to be halted unless the junior Partner stands firm on its reversal. This time, however, the national government could not afford to ignore the rights of the people of southwestern Kordofan with respect to land leases and investment opportunities. The Ngok-Dinka expect that SPLM would protect their land. Attempts at demarcation of rain-fed mechanized farms, similar to the experience of the 1960s, could not be allowed to resurface. Of course, in the post-conflict peace building and consolidation process, agricultural land must be surveyed and mapped with a view to equitable allocation and equitable land use opportunities.
UPHOLDING PRAC, DISPENSING WITH ABC: positions of stakeholders
10. The cantonment of Abyei Area had been under the jurisdiction of the defunct West Kordofan State before the signing of the CPA. Presently, it is attached to the Presidency. Its fate would be determined by the referendum at the end of the Interim Period. The majority of Abyei residents are SPLM followers. Abyei is rich in oil resources, another important factor to CPA implementation. Abyei Area has been assigned a special administrative status under the PRAC. One important contribution of the Abyei Boundary Commission (ABC) Report is that it delineated, for the first time, the total land area of the contested territory of Abyei Area (18,626 km2). The total area of southwestern Kordofan will, therefore, change to 125.400 km2. However, the estimated 50,000 people and a population density of 3-4 persons per km2 presents a challenge for outreach by the future Abyei Area government in respect of coverage with basic social services. Non-adoption of ABC Report, by the Presidency, is currently the number-one hurdle, and most immediate threat, to CPA. The fact that the PRAC has yet to be implemented by the Presidency after the lapse of more than two years, implicates the Presidency for blocking implementation of the CPA. It could lead to resumption of hostilities. Abyei Area would not remain as part of southwestern Kordofan. It has an autonomous legal administrative status, enshrined in the CPA, even if it chooses to stay in the North at the point of the referendum.
Defining the Predicament of the ABC Report:
11. Perhaps the problem with the ABC Report is twofold: Firstly, whereas the Experts delineated and demarcated boundaries as they appeared to them from documentary and circumstantial evidence as of 1905, all political stakeholders (NCP, SPLA, and partly Misiriya and Ngok-Dinka) seem to understand the identified boundaries as if they are the boundaries that must be in place today, (2005). Mindful of such incomprehension, the Experts underline it as "popular misunderstanding about the impact of establishing a boundary". Secondly, the NCP and Misiriya stakeholders seem to believe that findings that are based on scrupulous scientific procedures must coincide with political predispositions they hold. On the other hand, the NCP and SPLM seem to assume that correctness (political and scientific) remains what they intended it to be. In the authors’ view this is misplaced conception, simply because solutions that are politically practicable, sound and acceptable (to NCP and SPLM) do not have to coincide with what could be a scientifically correct statement of the situation.
12. Due to lack of an agreed mechanism, that is politically empowered by the two principal Parties, to address such differences on implementation of PRAC, the NCP and the SPLM held a joint meeting (27-29 May 2006) of their political leadership and established the High Political Committee, and sub-committees on pending political and economic issues. These committees have been deadlocked for over twelve months.
13. It has become clear to date, in view of statements made by the two principal Parties that the Presidency has officially declined to adopt the ABC Report presented on 14 July 2005. Rather, the two Parties have said ‘goodbye’ to the ABC. Furthermore, the SPLM/A has publicly closed the door on ‘futile dialogue’ of the post-mortem-type. In fact, SPLM has ‘shouted huller’. The up-shot is that not only the implementation of the PRAC has been firmly dead-locked and that the CPA process has consequently been ‘jammed’, but also that enthusiasm of the Ngok-Dinka for peace has been put on ‘hold’, at least temporarily. Therefore statements which morn the non-implementation of the PRAC as overdue by more than two years have already become non-productive.
14. However, the press record tells that the NCP has declined to accept ABC final report on four counts:
That the ABC experts have overstepped their mandate. Upon reading the ABC report, the author finds no justification to share the NCP position.
That the ABC experts have not discussed the Report with the Presidency. The author’s observation is that the ABC terms of reference and the rules of procedure do not require from the ABC experts to ‘discuss … with’, but rather to ‘present to’ the Presidency.
That the NCP claims that the text submitted is only a draft and that it is not the final report of the ABC. This claim is ill-founded because the experts submitted a ‘final and binding decision’.
Tat the NCP raises the question: is the text ‘a report of the experts’ or ‘the ABC report’? The author’s response is that the terms of reference and the rules of procedure for the ABC specify that the experts will write the report if the two Parties fail to reach a decision by consensus.
15. Therefore, the author observes that the report is the legitimate outcome of a constitutional instrument, the ABC. The view, here, is that the basic precondition for 'correctness' of the Report is that it "… shall be based on scientific analysis and research." The description of research methods, of information gathering and data collection, scrutiny and analysis show that the report is objective, clear and has fulfilled field requirements of procedure as stipulated in the four basic reference documents.
UN AGENCIES
Troika Countries
UN Funding Agencies
International NGOs
Humanitarian Action
International Oil Exploration Companies
Countries of Origin
Sudan Associates
Central Govt.
SAF/ PDF
ABYEI OIL
GOSS
SPLM / SPLA
42%Abyei Oil
MISIRIYA
2% of Abyei oil
Transhumance amps
Livestock vs crops
Pasture availability
NGOK-DIKA
2% of Abyei oil
Towns/villages
Livestock
patoralists
UN MONITORS
ABYEI AND THE POST-INTERIM-PERIOD (APIP)
16. The divergence of views of the main actors (NCP and SPLM) and the junior stakeholders (Misiriya and Ngok-Dinka), as secondary partners, has given rise to a situation the author describes as the ‘Post-Interim-Period Puzzle’ (PIP). In order to resolve the 'puzzle', it is imperative to redefine the Misiriya and Ngok-Dinka communities as primary stakeholders in their own territory.
17. Viewed from the Misiriya stand-point, it is likely that the puzzle is generated as 'an unintended consequence' of the time-bound TOR (1905) and temporary nature (6-years) of the ABC recommendations. The Misiriya think that the ABC recommendations attempt to resolve the Dinka-Ngok claims at the expense of the Misiriya. They add that everything will be 'hanging up in the air' pending the referendum on Abyei and on the South. If the results of the two referenda coincide, the Misiriya will face a 'catch-22'.
On the other hand, the Dinka-Ngok do not share the Misiriya concerns. They hold the view that the ABC is bound by the terms of reference, "define and demarcate" as of 1905. They add that the ABC is not mandated to resolve all types of claim; and that it is not fair to over-load the report with 'our' expectations of what the ABC aught to have done.
18. Hence, the APIP is a situation in which the Misiriya, long-time allies of the GOS, perceive that they will be the ultimate losers. They think that the NCP has sold out on them. Thus the Misiriya say that the ABC Report is final and binding decision only to the NCP and the SPLM. It addresses issues only in the context of the Interim Period. It does not present a solution to their problem after the lapse of the interim period. The Misiriya also ask: what is going to be done as regards complications that may occur after the lapse of the Interim Period? They suggest that a workable solution has to be found, including the redrawing of the borderline envisioned in the ABC Report. The Misiriya also think that the ABC Report alienates them from dry season water and grazing resources in (Ragaba-zerga/Gnol/ Bahr-al-Humr), a place they believe that they could not survive without reaching, in the dry season, failing which their cattle would be doomed to atrophy. They, further, believe that they not only deserve an equitable share of the natural water and grazing pasture resources of the area, but also the right to live, own property, and invest in the Ragaba-zerga/Gnol; a place they inhabited, with the Ngok-Dinka, for more than 300 years. They also think that, both as Sudanese citizens and as indigenous people of the area, they are entitled to free choice of the place of residence, a constitutional right denied to them, de facto, by the ABC report. Most importantly, the Misiriya say that if the ABC Report is implemented, as is, it would only create additional complications. It would set the area on fire and violence would return, this time, on the basis of sheer survival.
19. Most importantly: what is to be done in order to break the deadlock on Abyei? The scenario to break the deadlock could run as follows:
Firstly, the NCP, SPLM and the Presidency make and sign a tripartite supplementary understanding that separates ‘the adoption of the ABC Report’ from its ‘implementation’. Secondly, the NCP would present to the SPLM any reservations they may have on the ABC Report. Thirdly, as for implementation, the two Parties would negotiate and reach a compromise position with respect to any adjustment to the new boundary that has been identified by the ABC report, in such a manner that would allow the Misiriya unimpeded access to the Regaba-Zarga, including the right to live, invest and own property. Fourthly, the Dinka-Ngok should be compensated regarding land that goes to the Misiriya in order to reach the Regaba-Zarga: that is, along Kiek River towards Lake Kailek and along the railway line towards Latitude 10:35. Fifthly, the two Parties would recommend to the Presidency to transform the current top-down approach of the two principal Parties into a bottom-up one where the Misiriya and Ngok-Dinka communities would directly be involved as primary stakeholders in reaching an acceptable solution and reconfirming the proposed compensation. The Misiriya and Ngok-Dinka must, now, be redefined as the primary stakeholders involved in order to express their views on the future of Abyei. This is because both the Misiriya and Ngok-Dinka have been neglected for too long by the two Parties. This is important for avoiding the complexities mentioned above. This step, it should be understood, takes Abyei issue back to the Misiriya and the Ngok-Dinka within the context of the new boundary, without doing any harm to the ABC Report. Lastly, the two Parties would recommend to the Presidency an action plan and work schedule, to be elaborated in concurrence with the Presidency, including demilitarizing/disarming of the two communities, so that the tasks stipulated in Annex C2 of the PRAC could be implemented forthwith.
RECOMMENDATIONS
When the PRAC was signed with the promise of a sustained revenue flow to a politically autonomous local administration, it seemed that Abyei was positioned to play the model envisioned for it. It has not been forthcoming. Therefore, Responsible management of oil revenue and financial resources for both the Misiriya and Ngok-Dinka remains one instrument that would defuse feelings of animosity. It makes both sides feel that the peace dividend is real. Otherwise, it is a daunting challenge.
The absence of development plans for both parts of Southwestern Kordofan (WKZ and Abyei Area), presumably, owned by the local population, is a test case for starting on the road to failure in building peace.
Enforcement of the ABC findings, giving Misiriya only seasonal access in pursuit of grasing and pasture and denying them the right to live and own property is inimical to their survival. They will have to reach Ragaba-Zerga water sources in an unimpeded fashion.
The Parties and oil companies, as stakeholders, must be more sensitive to the interests of both the communities. They should work towards building peace through the forging of alliances among them around common interests. The first step in this direction could be a common platform for rights-based peace building.
Establishing a shared rights zone that does not include strategic planning for recovery of both communities would be detrimental to future harmony, if the Ngok-Dinka choose to stay in Southern Kordofan at the point of referendum.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
" Watch Kordofan "
http://www.ssrc.org/blog/2007/09/13/watch-kordofan/
Friday, September 14, 2007
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